The Bruins just got their first win of the playoffs against Montreal, cutting their deficit in the series to 2-1. A gutsy performance by the Bruins, who are playing with confidence, but with the lion’s share of scoring chances the rival Canadiens still look to be the superior team. I think the Bruins need to take the two remaining home games to have any chance to advance, as I don’t see them winning both remaining games in Canada.

I was lucky enough to attend the first game of the Sox-Yankees series on Friday. The series, which is wrapping up tonight, has been a good indication of why Boston is a superior team. In particular, New York’s weak rotation has been showcased, starting believe it or not with Wang’s two hitter on Friday night. While he got the job done, Wang’s stellar box score does not represent his actual performance. There were numerous line drives hit throughout the night which happened to travel straight into the gloves of the Yankee outfielders. The Sox could easily have touched Wang up for three or four runs, but ended up with one. Wang may be an ace, but he is neither a dominating nor intimidating presence which will cost the Yankees in the playoffs.

Mike Mussina gave a performance which I would expect to be about average from him this year, surrendering four runs in five-plus innings. He too got hit hard and has shown no signs of stopping his downward trend of the past few years. On the other end of the age spectrum, Phil Hughes got lit up today and will likely continue to have an up and down season as he adjusts to the major leagues. With a mediocre ace and an aging Pettitte and Mussina, the Yankees will need consistent quality starts our of Hughes and Ian Kennedy, and I don’t think they will get them over the course of the season.

The Red Sox are not without their own concerns, with Big Papi heading up the list. Much talk has been surrounding his off-season knee surgery and, although Ortiz said his knee felt fine during spring training, it is important to note that his struggles date back to the month of March. Had Ortiz shown any power during the spring (0 home runs in 26 at-bats) I would be more willing to brush off his early season struggles as an aberration. Once J.D. Drew cools off the Sox will have some difficulty scoring runs, especially with Lowell still out of the lineup. Nonetheless, Boston’s pitching is strong enough that I am confident that they will finish ahead of the Yankees in the standings.

Encouraging performance from Beckett today, but the Sox as a team need to get their act together after losing three in a row north of the border. Aside from the always reliable Papelbon and Okajima, the bullpen has been a mess so far this season. Mike Timlin cannot return soon enough as Manny Delcarmen continues to struggle.

In the series finale against Toronto today Delcarmen served up a grand slam to Frank Thomas, allowing three inherited runners to score. This makes Beckett’s pitching line pretty ugly, but I am still happy with the stuff he showed today. I am less happy with the fact that he seemed to tire in the fifth inning, leaving after throwing only 92 pitches. While it was encouraging that he was able to hit 98 on the radar gun out of the gate, I can’t help but question whether he tired himself out by throwing too hard too early. Beckett’s main problem in 2006 was mental rather than physical (throwing too many fastballs) and his start today shows he may still have some maturing to do.

As I think many people expected J.D. Drew seems poised for a bounce back year, although let’s not forget that he started pretty quickly in the first few games of last season as well. I am far more concerned about Lugo, a player known for his shaky defense who was downright awful in the Toronto series in the field and has shown no signs of improving his woeful hitting from a year ago. It makes me wonder how close to major league ready Jed Lowrie, the highly touted shortstop prospect, is. Lowrie struggled mightily in spring training, however, hitting just .106 in 47 at-bats and it is highly doubtful that we will see him replacing the excessively paid Lugo any time soon. As long as Lugo can settle down in the field I will be satisfied, as the lineup should be fine once Ortiz and Ramirez inevitably come around at the plate.

Might as well do it now! Here are my predictions for the outcome of MLB 2008:

American League East

Boston Red Sox 94 - 68

New York Yankees 90 - 72

Toronto Blue Jays 83-79

Tampa Bay Rays 82 - 80

Baltimore Orioles 62-100

No surprise here. I can’t help but be a homer when my favorite team won the World Series last year and retains its roster in near entirety. I think the big surprise in this division is going to be the Rays, though. They’ve given both the Sox and the Yanks fits in the past, but have had trouble winning consistently against opponents both in their division (222-335, .398) and outside of it (257-392, .396). This year though, the Rays are armed with a multitude of young talent and have arguably the best rotation in the American League East, and for that reason I predict that for the first time in club history this young Rays team who is no longer helpless will finish with a record over .500. (As a side note, Kurti will owe me $100.00 dollars when this happens.) Congrats to the Baltimore Orioles for finally deciding to sell and rebuild, and being willing to lose 100 games this year.

American League Central

Detroit Tigers 96 - 66

Cleveland Indians 88 - 74

Minnesota Twins 79 - 83

Chicago White Sox 73 - 89

Kansas City Royals 70 - 92

The tigers loaded up heavy in the offseason, and for the next few years it should pay tidy dividends to them. With the additions of Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria, the Tigers have filled in the few holes their lineup contained. I have some questions about their pitching, namely why on earth they chased after the D-Train, but this team could and probably will score close to 1000 runs this season, and that will be tough for most clubs to consistently stop. I expect drop off from Fausto Carmona and C.C. Sabathia (who undeservedly won the Cy Young award last year) that will not be fully alleviated by a resurgence of Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera and Travis Hafner, and I don’t expect the Indians to make the playoffs. I do, however, expect a more respectable showing from the youngsters on the Royals squad this year, but not enough to take them out of the basement of the Central. I’ll be cheering for Billy Butler.

American League West

Seattle Mariners 91 - 61

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 91 - 61

Oakland Athletics 67 - 95

Texas Rangers 66 - 96

Ladies and gentleman, your new American League wild card division. After the Yankees managed to squeeze in last year and reclaim the wild card for the American League East (takers of the wild card in 9 of the last 13 seasons) , the West can expect to send two members to the playoffs for the first time since 2002. With Erik Bedard, the Mariners now have one of the best 1-2 pitching combos in the American League. I expect the Mariners to be a tough game for all of their opponents regardless of who is starting for the entire year, but they will only be at the very top of their division at the end of the year because the Angel’s are beginning this season hurt. Once LA returns to full health they should be a force to be reckoned with, displaying speed, BA and quality pitching to their opponents night after night. Best of luck to the A’s and the Rangers, who will have a tough fight this season to see who finishes last in the division. Based on the preseason, and depending on a healthy Rich Harden, I’m picking the Rangers for the bottom rung.

National League East

New York Mets 95 - 67

Philadelphia Phillies 91 - 71

Atlanta Braves 75 - 87

Florida Marlins 68 - 94

Washington Nationals 63 - 99

Wow, the Mets look scary on paper. Can you imagine a healthy Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana on the same team? Stocked with two of the best young superstars in baseball on the left side of their infield, and probably the best starting 5 in baseball, the Mets are a lock to win the division. Believe me when I say this: the Mets are going to the World Series this year. Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, and Oliver Perez? Even the aging El Duque could have another standout year. The Mets are a juggernaut, and the other teams in this division will just be looking to scrape together enough wins to try for the wild card, of which the Phillies stand the best chance.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs 91 - 71

Milwaukee Brewers 88 - 74

Cincinnati Reds 84 - 78

St. Louis Cardinals 79 - 83

Houston Astros 78 - 84

Pittsburgh Pirates 64 - 98

In the worst division in baseball, things finally come together for the Cubs, but not as much as they’ve anticipated based on pre-season moves. I expect the Brewers to give them a run for their money this year. Once the Reds get it into their heads that young players can contribute to a major league team they’ll call up Homer Bailey and Joey Votto and start giving teams a hard time, but it will wind up being too late to contend in the division this year. Aside from that, expect many Pirate losses. I know, I know, this blog was supposed to focus on predictions, but, nothing very new is going to happen in the extremely vanilla National League Central.

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks 90-72

San Diego Padres 89 - 73

Colorado Rockies 89 - 73

Los Angeles Dodgers 81 - 81

San Fransisco Giants 63 - 99

Probably the closest division in the league, I don’t think we can expect a repeat performance from the Colorado Rockies this year. I do think, however, that the DBacks will have learned from their experience, and with the addition of Dan Haren I am picking them out of the gate this year as the strongest and most well-rounded team in the NLW. That said, I don’t think they will make it past the division series….which brings me to projected playoff matchups.

Division Series

Tigers Vs. Angels: Tigers in 4

Red Sox Vs. Mariners: Red Sox in 5

Mets Vs. Diamondbacks: Mets in 3

Cubs Vs. Phillies: Cubs in 5

The two AL games should be thrilling with some excellent pitching match ups and some loaded lineups. In the end the two best teams in the AL will move on to the ALCS. The Mets will crush the Diamondbacks in 3 straight, and Cubs fans will once again get their hopes up after a 100 year drought when Chicago moves on to the NLCS

Championship Series

Tigers Vs. Red Sox: Red Sox in 6

Mets Vs. Cubs: Mets in 5

The pitching and depth of the Red Sox proves to be too much even for the loaded Detroit line-up in a 7 game series. Meanwhile, the Mets continue to roll, showcasing the depth of their starting pitching over 5 games. Sorry Cubs fans. Maybe next year.

World Series

If you’re from New England, you know this is the rematch you’ve been waiting for. 22 years later, we finally get another shot at the Mets. This series is really a toss up, and I’d say really depends on the health and fatigue of the starting pitchers in October. I think the Red Sox get the edge here based on experience, but it will be a series for the ages. Red Sox, in 7, winning their first World Series at home since 1918. Put it in the books.

Tomorrow night the Celtics will complete one of the greatest road trips in memory, win or lose, but more on that some other time. For now, I must take issue with Patrick’s fantasy baseball expoundings.

For starters, I would like to clarify that I don’t take issue with any of his draft picks. Certainly in the last few rounds of the draft it is acceptable to take rookies who may or may not perform. In the case of Oliver Perez, I wish I had been able to snare him, and the reason why is that he has a history of dominance. He also has a history of miserable failure, but that’s a risk you can take by selecting him late in the draft.

I tend to be more cautious with rookies, especially guys who have never played in the majors. I have no problem at all drafting players like Loney, Butler and Theriot, who have all shown what they can do in the bigs. I do take issue, however, with people who get too excited about rookies that haven’t shown anything and draft them ridiculously high. A good example of this is Alex Gordon, who was supposedly a wunderkind from Kansas City last year and got drafted in the middle rounds in one of my leagues. One day he may be great, but last year’s performance was not worth that kind of investment. History tells us that it rarely is; hardly any rookie comes in to dominate, especially one with absolutely not major league experience. One could point to certain counter-examples, such as Ryan Braun, but the point is it is impossible to tell (case in point, Braun went largely undrafted last season and turned out being a great waiver pickup). There are far more examples of guys like Perez who have shown that they can dominate and returning to form than there are of phenomenal rookies.

You will do well in our league Patrick, because you were smart and saved your rookie picks to the end. There are certain other teams in the league, who I will spare the embarrassment of mentioning, who fell in to the trap of drafting over hyped rookies way too high. So readers, when you do your fantasy baseball drafts, take a deep breath and realize that even if you think a guy will far outperform his ADP, there is no reason to draft him too early. Even if he pans out you could have had him later, so no matter how good your baseball intuition, you’re still a moron for taking him too soon.

Check back tomorrow for my thoughts on the Celtics, and don’t forget to watch the game!

Much like very many others, I am anxiously anticipating the beginning of the baseball season. Not just to watch my beloved Red Sox, however. Every year I follow Spring Training and anxiously await opening day because it means the start of another fantasy baseball season.

Kurti and I had our draft a few weeks ago, and I can say that I am largely pleased with my results. I had the 11th pick overall and still wound up with some decent power (Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun), while preserving my speed and OBP numbers throughout the rest of the draft (Russell Martin, Michael Young, etc). But just about anyone can make the first 13 or 14 picks in a 12-team mixed league. The key to moving up a few positions in the league is to not only work the waiver wire to your advantage, but to also evaluate risks and use foresight when making those last 7 or 8 draft choices.

I have largely been mocked around the office for spending my last picks on the following group of babies players: James Loney, Oliver Perez, Jon Lester, Kevin Gregg, Joey Votto, Jonathan Broxton, Billy Butler and Ryan Theriot (And unfortunately NOT Evan Longoria, who will win Rookie of the Year this year, even playing for the Rays). Kevin Gregg is the old man of that group at the tender age of 30. While I was drafting young talent, the rest of my league was largely fighting over veterans with recognizable names who are primed (read: trying) to make a comeback, and I think this is a mistake.

Some examples of veterans who are unlikely to produce big time numbers again, but were still drafted in my league: Randy Johnson, Ivan Rodriguez, Troy Percival, hell even injured Curt Schilling. I find it hard to believe that Ivan Rodriguez will outproduce Geovany Soto this year even in the stacked Tiger’s lineup, yet his ADP is about 12 picks earlier than the rookie. Now, don’t get me wrong, there is a place for established players on any team, but if it comes down to a veteran who’s numbers have steadily declined from their moment in the sun and a rookie who is trying to make a name for themselves in the majors, I’ll take the loaded-with-upside rookie every single time.

Think twice before taking the most recognizable name on that list! Teams like the Rays and the Reds, darkhorse candidates to compete in their respective leagues, expect major contributions from their rookies this year, and to not consider them as potential sources of statistics in a fantasy league is foolish and shortsighted. Long live the rookie!

It’s been a while since my last post, I apologize, there’s lots of Red Sox news to discuss.  According to ESPN there is now a very good chance that ace Josh Beckett will not make it to Japan for the opening series of the season.  Beckett’s back injury does not appear to be too serious, but this is the guy who was plagued by something as minor as blisters for years, so I won’t feel better until he is back on the mound and at full strength.

The pressure is now on the rest of the pitching staff to start the season off strong, with Dice-K likely getting the opening day start, if he indeed makes the trip to Japan despite the impending birth of his child.  I believe the Japanese star will have a strong game, or will at least be fired up, in his first start back in front of his home fans.  Behind Matsusaka, the rotation is looking a bit shaky, what with the struggles of Buchholz, Snyder, and Tavarez so far this spring.  Another Boston pitcher of note who is struggling, although out of the bullpen, is Craig Hansen.  If Hansen can’t pull it together this year I will have just about given up hope on this highly regarded prospect who has yet to show he can handle Major League hitters.

On the bright side, Tim Wakefield has been solid so far this spring, and John Lester is coming off a good start against hypothetical trade counterpart Johann Santana.  I was very happy to hear that Lester is consistently hitting the mid 90s with his fastball this spring, which should greatly improve his effectiveness (last year he was throwing high 80s and low 90s, coming off his cancer treatment).  If Dice-K and either Wake or Lester start the opening series games against the Athletics in Japan I like their chances of winning at least one of, if not both, contests.

On a side note, congratulations to Papelbon on his new contract.  The one-year, $775,000 deal shows the lights out closer the respect he deserves, while fitting in with the Sox’ need for fiscal responsibility.  As an arbitration-ineligible player it was the best he could have hoped for, and it is a deal that ensures he remain a positive influence in the clubhouse.

Not to wear, that’s sleezy and smells disgusting, but cheap Colon is great when pitching for the Red Sox. The Sox have signed former Cy Young award winner Bartolo Colon to a minor league contract. This is a great move for the Sox, as it is ripe with potential and low on risk. Colon, who has had a couple of bad seasons, was the American League’s best pitcher in 2005 (according to the voters), taking home the Cy Young award that year. Injuries were a big part of his downfall in the past two seasons. While there is no guarantee that 34-year-old Colon is injury free, or that he can pitch with the same velocity that made him dominant in the first few years of the century, he certainly has the potential to be a solid, if not great, starter.

While there was recent talking of adding a pitcher like Josh Fogg for depth, I am ten times happier with the Colon deal. Best case scenario, a guy like Fogg is a mediocre spot starter. He has a proven track record of being sub-par, and he’s not young enough to emerge as a surprisingly dominant force. Colon, on the other hand, could just maybe return to his dominant old self. The great thing about it is that if he doesn’t the Sox haven’t lost anything. Even if Colon emerges as a middle to bottom of the rotation starter, he could be valuable in the event of an injury. The one caveat is that I doubt he will stick around long if an injury does not occur and if he doesn’t win a spot in the rotation out of camp. A guy with his career is not going to play for a couple months in the minors, waiting to come up. He’ll either have it, or he won’t. We should know by the end of spring training.

I want to take a minute to commend Coco Crisp for his reaction to having to compete for playing time with Jacoby Ellsbury.  Coco clearly wants to be the starting center fielder, however he has taken a very reasonable approach to the situation.  Speaking to the press today, Crisp stated

“A lot of people say, well, I don’t deserve it. Well, that’s understandable too. I didn’t have a good offensive year like I did in the past….People think that my offense is terrible. Now it’s time to show them that my offense really isn’t.” (Boston Globe)

Crisp, unlike a certain individual who likes to “Cowboy up” for example, acknowledges that he hasn’t played well and is setting out to prove that he is better than people think.  By being honest yet realistic about his desire to start, Crisp avoids becoming a distraction in the clubhouse.  If he gets used to the idea of being a role player, Crisp could make a huge contribution from the bench.  He is an ideal backup, playing great defense, giving the Sox a pinch running option, and being able to hit (in theory) from both sides of the plate.  It will be a shame if Theo ends up trading him for lesser value, although it may become necessary as his desire to start is completely understandable.

Well, that one sealed the deal.  Andy Petitte has told Congressional Board members that he has had conversations with both McNamee and Clemens himself that Roger Clemens used HGH and possibly steroids in the past.  Roger is now asking America to believe:

•  The same Roger Clemens who went 11-14, 9-7, 10-5 and 10-13 with the Red Sox, went 21-7 and 20-6 with Toronto (where Brian McNamee was his personal trainer) , without the aid of performance enhancers.
• Brian McNamee, a personal trainer with a degree in sports medicine, doesn’t know the difference between a B-12 shot (in the ass) and an HGH shot (through the navel)
• McNamee injected two of Rogers teammates and workout partners, Chuck Knoblauch and Andy Petitte, and Roger’s wife, but not Roger himself.
• Petitte “misremembers” that Roger said he took HGH and that McNamee said Roger did steroids.
• McNamee, a former police officer who knows how important physical evidence is to a case, fabricated said evidence to “throw a final hail mary” to support his story.

Are you serious Roger?  It was bad enough that you chose not to end your career in Boston, the city that loved and celebrated you.  It was worse that you soiled the game by taking illegal performance enhancers.  But now your looking at a perjury conviction that carries a sentence up to 5 years.  And once you are found guilty…and oh, you will be found guilty Roger, instead of being remembered as one of the greatest pitchers of all time: the Rocket, a man to be feared on the mound, your legacy will be only that of a liar, a cheater, a false idol, and one of the greatest blemishes in history on our Nation’s great game.

There are reports today in the Globe and Herald that Curt Schilling may have a shoulder injury. It is supposedly serious enough that the Red Sox have investigated whether they can void the pitcher’s contract, and Schilling will be out until at least the All Star break. This injury just highlights how important it was to trade for Santana; this rotation isn’t as deep as people think it is.