Old Vs. New
Much like very many others, I am anxiously anticipating the beginning of the baseball season. Not just to watch my beloved Red Sox, however. Every year I follow Spring Training and anxiously await opening day because it means the start of another fantasy baseball season.
Kurti and I had our draft a few weeks ago, and I can say that I am largely pleased with my results. I had the 11th pick overall and still wound up with some decent power (Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun), while preserving my speed and OBP numbers throughout the rest of the draft (Russell Martin, Michael Young, etc). But just about anyone can make the first 13 or 14 picks in a 12-team mixed league. The key to moving up a few positions in the league is to not only work the waiver wire to your advantage, but to also evaluate risks and use foresight when making those last 7 or 8 draft choices.
I have largely been mocked around the office for spending my last picks on the following group of babies players: James Loney, Oliver Perez, Jon Lester, Kevin Gregg, Joey Votto, Jonathan Broxton, Billy Butler and Ryan Theriot (And unfortunately NOT Evan Longoria, who will win Rookie of the Year this year, even playing for the Rays). Kevin Gregg is the old man of that group at the tender age of 30. While I was drafting young talent, the rest of my league was largely fighting over veterans with recognizable names who are primed (read: trying) to make a comeback, and I think this is a mistake.
Some examples of veterans who are unlikely to produce big time numbers again, but were still drafted in my league: Randy Johnson, Ivan Rodriguez, Troy Percival, hell even injured Curt Schilling. I find it hard to believe that Ivan Rodriguez will outproduce Geovany Soto this year even in the stacked Tiger’s lineup, yet his ADP is about 12 picks earlier than the rookie. Now, don’t get me wrong, there is a place for established players on any team, but if it comes down to a veteran who’s numbers have steadily declined from their moment in the sun and a rookie who is trying to make a name for themselves in the majors, I’ll take the loaded-with-upside rookie every single time.
Think twice before taking the most recognizable name on that list! Teams like the Rays and the Reds, darkhorse candidates to compete in their respective leagues, expect major contributions from their rookies this year, and to not consider them as potential sources of statistics in a fantasy league is foolish and shortsighted. Long live the rookie!
posted by Patrick Quinn | 1 Comment
