The Orioles have thrown in the towel. News reports today indicate that Erik Bedard is going to be traded from Baltimore to the Seattle Mariners. In return, the Orioles will receive a package of Adam Jones, one of the Mariners’ top prospects; George Sherill, a little known relief pitcher coming off a solid year; Chris Tillman, a 20-year-old second round draft pick who’s played one year of A-ball; and an unnamed fourth player, who, being unnamed, is likely not in the same class as the other prospects.

I believe that this is a poor trade for the Orioles. Bedard, who is 29 years old, is one of the best lefty hurlers in baseball, and has improved his pitching every year he’s been in the league. For a man of his age he has not been in the Majors very long (4 full years), which limits the number of innings he has thrown (658) in contrast with a guy like Johann Santana who, at the same age, has tossed 1308 major league innings. Although the Orioles are in a rebuilding phase, Bedard is not eligible for free agency until after the 2009 season. Until then, he can be had for relatively cheaply. If the Orioles determined closer to 2010 that they were still not in a position to sign Bedard, they could trade him away and recieve significant value, especially if Bedard continues to improve. I just don’t think its worth trading away your team’s one exciting player when he will be relatively young in the years you hope to contend, he isn’t breaking the bank, and he can be a centerpiece around which to build a team. While the O’s are getting some fairly highly regarded prospects, unproven players meet expectations at a very low rate. Is it worth sacrificing the only chance you have at a decent team for a couple of hit or miss prospects? I don’t think so.

It will be interesting to see how this trade affects the dynamic of the American League East this year. The Red Sox and Yankees are still clearly the two teams to beat, and now that the Orioles have taken a huge step backwards they will likely complete the job they started last year and finish in last behind the up-and-coming Rays. While the Rays and Blue Jays have little hope of winning the division, they should face an intense battle for third. The re-signing of Carlos Pena by Tampa Bay was a surprise to me, and represents a newly evident commitment to retain players who perform well. Both the Rays and the Jays have a good chance to finish above .500 this year, as they should be able to beat up on the Orioles, who may win the dubious honor of being the first team mathematically eliminated in 2008.