Playoff Picks and the Big Brother Syndrome
I will reveal the my revolutionary Big Brother theory later in this post, for now it’s time to put my reputation on the line and make some playoff picks. Let’s start out with the one right here in New England, obviously I think the Patriots will probably win the game, so we’ll give the Jags a chance and go with the spread on this one.
Currently the gambling gurus have it at Pats -13.5, I think the Patriots will beat this, and I’ll tell you why (its not just because I’m a homer, I am but this one I can justify). I don’t think anyone is too concerned about the Patriots offense, so the question is whether the Jaguars can put up points. Quarterback Garrard’s claim to fame is throwing few interceptions, but he’s still a inexperienced quarterback. If his team gets down he’ll have to go away from the safe passes he usually completes. I also expect him to have problems with the Patriots confusing package of rushes, he hasn’t faced a defense that operates quite like the Pats’.
The analysts love to talk about the Jags’ potent running game, I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve heard this past week that they will keep the Patriots offense off the field; “Brady and Moss can’t score if they’re on the sideline”. When you think about it, this is one of the stupider theories out there. Sure, if the clock is running the Pats will have fewer drives, but so will the Jaguars. Common wisdom is that time of possession means you’ll win the game, but such wisdom is based in fallacy. Teams with longer drives score more, and by longer I mean by yardage. Obviously these tend to take up more time than a drive where you get a couple first downs and punt or turn it over.
So in the end I don’t buy the running game making the difference, you need to do more than run the ball. It would be difficult for the Jags to score the 25.7 points per game they averaged this season, and even that would not be close to enough to beat the Pats. If they try to slow down the game to lower New England’s score they do the same to themselves.
On to the rest of the games, beginning with Indy and San Diego to round out the AFC. Indy is favored by 9, and I’ll take them over the Chargers. San Diego looked pretty mediocre against a weak Titans team last week, and Indy has all of their weapons back; they’ll be looking to use them and put up some points. And if the game is close they’d better hope Adam Vinatieri returns to his Patriot form.
I’m picking the Packers (-7.5) over Seattle simply because the Seahawks don’t play well on the road, and Lambeau is a tough place to play, especially with freezing temperatures forecast for tomorrow’s game. I do think Seattle has a chance to pull off the upset if they can utilize their experience on offense and Favre makes some mistakes with the football, as he is sometimes wont to do.
The trendy upset pick this week is NY over Dallas. I’ll take the Giants getting 7.5 with the spread, but Dallas will win the game. Romo has something to prove after all the talk of him being distracted, and after his playoff debacle of last year. The Giants have played well these past two weeks, but as I’ve said before I have no faith in Eli Manning, and I don’t think he’ll keep up the strong performance for a third week in a row. Which brings me to the much anticipated…
Big Brother Syndrome Theory! The performances of Eli and Peyton are inversely proportional. Whether he can’t handle the pressure of living up to his brother, or there is some cosmic force limiting the combined success of the Mannings, Eli plays his worst when Peyton has a strong game. He does well in weeks where Peyton struggles or doesn’t play at all. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at some numbers. Peyton’s 2007 season QB rating was 98.0, Eli’s was 76.0 (including his playoff game). In weeks where Peyton had a better QB rating than his average, Eli was held to an average rating of 65.6. During weeks where Peyton did worse than his average, or didn’t play at all, Eli had an average QB rating of 87.7. That’s a whopping 22.1 point difference in rating, and since Peyton will probably have a huge game this week, the Giants are in huge trouble. Remember, you heard it here first.