You better watch out…I’ll try not to cry…I’ll probably pout…

Screw it, I’m in no mood to write another song just yet. Johan Santana, according to media reports, is bound for the New York Mets, pending a contract extension. And, barring failure of said contract extension, I’m pretty disappointed. Don’t get me wrong, I am happy that the Sox did not offer Ellsbury and Lester for Santana, but I am sad that the Twins decided the Mets’ package was better than one or the other, along with Coco Crisp.

As has been well established throughout recent baseball history: a great pitching staff is far more formidable than a great offense. While Ellsbury, assuming everything works out as projected, will be a solid addition to the Boston lineup, Santana would have been more valuable in the starting rotation. Am I the only one who has some concerns about the rotation as presently constituted? Beckett is great, and we can figure on him to have another strong year, but beyond that there are question marks. Matsusaka will do better; after all, it’s his second year; he’s had time to adjust…we think. In reality Daisuke could struggle with his control just as much as he did this year, and remain a middle-of-the-road, number two starter. Beyond that things are very uncertain, what with the age of Schilling and Wakefield, and the uncertainty of Clay Buchholz and John Lester. I would’ve felt much better with two dominating aces in the rotation, even at the cost of a potential lead-off hitting all star. A guaranteed half-decade of AL East superiority is now in question. One day we may look back on this non-trade and smile, but for now I wish the Twins would’ve seen things differently and taken the Sox’ package over the Mets’.

On a happier note, I now pledge to watch at least one Bruins game per week. It’s easy to forget about the one team in Boston that is not in the process of making history, but the Bruins are a fun team to watch. In a year where we root for the Red Sox, Patriots, and Celtics, expecting them to excel, it is refreshing to have a team to root for which is just trying to hang on to make the playoffs. It took sitting rinkside at the game today to remind me, but hockey can be damn entertaining. Honestly, check out this view, how could you not get excited:

The Orioles have thrown in the towel. News reports today indicate that Erik Bedard is going to be traded from Baltimore to the Seattle Mariners. In return, the Orioles will receive a package of Adam Jones, one of the Mariners’ top prospects; George Sherill, a little known relief pitcher coming off a solid year; Chris Tillman, a 20-year-old second round draft pick who’s played one year of A-ball; and an unnamed fourth player, who, being unnamed, is likely not in the same class as the other prospects.

I believe that this is a poor trade for the Orioles. Bedard, who is 29 years old, is one of the best lefty hurlers in baseball, and has improved his pitching every year he’s been in the league. For a man of his age he has not been in the Majors very long (4 full years), which limits the number of innings he has thrown (658) in contrast with a guy like Johann Santana who, at the same age, has tossed 1308 major league innings. Although the Orioles are in a rebuilding phase, Bedard is not eligible for free agency until after the 2009 season. Until then, he can be had for relatively cheaply. If the Orioles determined closer to 2010 that they were still not in a position to sign Bedard, they could trade him away and recieve significant value, especially if Bedard continues to improve. I just don’t think its worth trading away your team’s one exciting player when he will be relatively young in the years you hope to contend, he isn’t breaking the bank, and he can be a centerpiece around which to build a team. While the O’s are getting some fairly highly regarded prospects, unproven players meet expectations at a very low rate. Is it worth sacrificing the only chance you have at a decent team for a couple of hit or miss prospects? I don’t think so.

It will be interesting to see how this trade affects the dynamic of the American League East this year. The Red Sox and Yankees are still clearly the two teams to beat, and now that the Orioles have taken a huge step backwards they will likely complete the job they started last year and finish in last behind the up-and-coming Rays. While the Rays and Blue Jays have little hope of winning the division, they should face an intense battle for third. The re-signing of Carlos Pena by Tampa Bay was a surprise to me, and represents a newly evident commitment to retain players who perform well. Both the Rays and the Jays have a good chance to finish above .500 this year, as they should be able to beat up on the Orioles, who may win the dubious honor of being the first team mathematically eliminated in 2008.

Alright Bill, you win again. You want us to play your little games and we can’t help ourselves. And really, what are we supposed to do? Who isn’t at least a little curious as to why Tom Brady is missing? I’m sure the Giants coaches are out right now searching for the New England quarterback instead of looking at game tape and motivating their team with false hope for next Sunday.

Well that’s probably a bit optimistic. But to be honest, even as we play along with Belichick’s hide-and-seek shenanigans, we all know that our precious quarterback is fine. Have any doubts? Here’s what we know:

1. The injury isn’t serious. It was supposedly sustained during the Chargers game, yet it was minor enough that we didn’t even notice it at the time. Brady may be tough enough to make the likes of Philip Rivers envious, but I’m pretty sure you can’t cover up running around on a serious ankle sprain. Additionally, he was seen walking around again a few hours after he had the boot on, sans boot. God bless the paparazzi for keeping us all so up-to-date, I’m sure Tom doesn’t find it annoying at all.
2. There are only three possible reasons to hide Tom from the media. He either a) is completely fine, and Belichick simply wants to mess with the Giants’ heads, b) is trying to hide a serious injury so that the Giants don’t game plan for it, or c) has been kidnapped by the Dolphins because they’ve given up on Cleo Lemon. Since we have already established that ‘b’ is false, and ‘c’ is too low even for Bill Parcells, we are left with the psychological ploy theory.

So there’s nothing to be worried about, you can take Brady’s picture off of that milk carton. I’m sure that while the media searches the locker room Tom is sitting in Coach Belichick’s office staring through the keyhole and giggling. My personal theory is that Belichick wants the Giants to blitz a lot, which they may be wont to do if they think Brady is playing on a bum ankle.

Hey, I guess it’s worth a shot, and at worst the coach has given everyone something to do while we wait for the game. I know I’ve had so much fun I’m off to peruse some children’s books for Waldo.

Another great weekend of playoff football is over, and now we must wait the tedious two weeks until the Super Bowl. I, for one, am not a fan of the two week break, but Tom Brady seemed pleased about it, so I won’t complain. There will be much to discuss in the next two weeks, but I am coming out now with my prediction for the big game: Patriots by 3. That’s how they’ve done it the last three times, so I’m sticking with it until they do otherwise. By the way, I really wish that I wasn’t a Pats fan so that I could bet on the Giants with their +14 spread. That spread is way too high and the Pats have not been doing very well at all against the bookmakers recently.

I am very confident that the Pats will win the game, however the one thing to be concerned about is the play of Mr. Eli Manning. He and the Giants are reminding me of the 2001 Pats, so much so that I found myself during the NFC title game rooting for a New York team for the first time in my life. The Giants don’t have the greatest players, but they’ve been playing hard, mistake-free football and it’s working. In the weeks since I trashed Eli Manning, he has been superb. While I am flattered that Eli was so offended as to elevate his game after reading my post, his performance needs to stop before he plays the Patriots. And so, to show my sincerity, I have composed this heartfelt apology to Eli, in the style of Akon’s hit, “Sorry, Blame it on me”:

• I’m sorry for the times I wrote about you
• In all those posts I didn’t have a clue
• I’m sorry that I wrote about how you sucked
• I’m sorry that I thought your team was f*cked

• I’m sorry that I said that you were lame
• That you wouldn’t make it to a Super Bowl game
• Now you’ve shown I should’ve held my tongue
• Peyton wishes he could’ve gone that young

• I’m sorry I thought you’d disappoint Dad
• For sixteen games Archie saw you look bad
• How was I to know you’d turn it around
• That in the post season you would rebound

• I thought your brother was better than you
• Peyton always had more commercials to do
• But while he was filming you were in the gym
• I guess it should be you giving pep talks to him

• Even though you’ve had your problems
• In the playoffs we now know
• All the talent’s been inside you
• At long last you’ve let it show

• If I can’t apologize for being wrong
• Then it’s just a shame on me
• I didn’t think that you had game
• And you can put that blame on me

There. You can take my other comments off your bulletin board. And please don’t ruin the perfect season, the last thing we need is for a New York team to end the streak.

Just finished watching Roger Federer, one of my favorite athletes, in his grueling match against Janko Tipsarevic in the Australian Open.  For those of you who are not tennis fans, the dominate, #1 ranked Federer nearly lost to the little known, 49th ranked Tipsarevic.  This match was a striking reminder of how an underdog with a lot of heart who plays the game of their life can pressure a superior opponent.

Sound like there might be a similar situation with the Patriots this weekend?  I think not.   While it would be foolish to take the Chargers lightly, and as we all know the Patriots will not, they are in no shape to put up a strong fight.  Philip Rivers is listed as doubtful for the game, I’m sure he’s hoping he can stay on the sideline so he can talk trash to fans all game, and key players like Gates and LT are banged up.  The only consolation for Chargers fans is that Rivers isn’t really very good, so the drop off if Billy Volek plays won’t be too big.  There’s still a chance that Rivers could play, but does he scare you?  I’ve rarely seen a more gutless performance than last week as he ran back to the field after having his knee looked at in the locker room only to stay out of the game in a critical situation.  Gutless players don’t do well against the Pats; my pick for the game is the Patriots (-14).

I’m also going to take the Giants and their +7.5 spread.  While it is yet unknown whether the Manning theory still applies with Peyton done for the year, the Giants (in an un-Rivers-like fashion) are playing with a lot of heart.  If the Manning theory does apply Eli will have a great game again.  Just as Eli’s performances are the opposite of his brother’s during the year, perhaps his playoff success will be just as different (mediocre in the regular season, great in the playoffs).  Green Bay does have a really good chance to win this game, but it should at least be close.  By the way, has anyone seen the forecast for the game tomorrow?  I’ve seen sources range from +5 to -5; either way, that’s f*cking cold!  It must be miserable for the players while they’re on the sideline, and cheese hats off to the Packers fans for sitting through it.

It’s been a pretty slow news week in New England up to this point, I thought it time to make a quick post about the Celtics and Randy Moss.

Let’s start with the better of the two stories, the Celtics. I’ll admit that I was pretty down on them after their two recent losses. Ray Allen had been awful, and Rondo’s injury was clearly hurting the team. As they proved against the Blazers, however, the Celts will step it up for big games, and when Allen is on they can overcome other setbacks. Had Rajon played last night, the point difference would’ve been even greater.

This game also highlighted one of the main differences between Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. Paul had an off night in the scoring department, but was still able to make a huge contribution with 8 rebounds, and the team won the game. Ray on the other hand doesn’t do much when he isn’t scoring, so let’s hope he’s put his shooting troubles behind him.

Now on to the Randy Moss situation. Already he has shown that he is much more adept at defending himself than Roger Clemens. Hopefully this is because he actually isn’t guilty. In Roger’s case, no one is benefiting from the accusations, whereas Randy’s accuser clearly has a lot to gain at his expense. We should find out more details soon; in the meantime is anyone concerned that the Patriots will be distracted by this? Didn’t think so.

That’s it for now, be sure to check back Saturday for my next round of playoff predictions. (By the way, the Manning theory is in tact, let’s see if it applies after Peyton’s season is over. If it does, watch out Packers!)

I will reveal the my revolutionary Big Brother theory later in this post, for now it’s time to put my reputation on the line and make some playoff picks. Let’s start out with the one right here in New England, obviously I think the Patriots will probably win the game, so we’ll give the Jags a chance and go with the spread on this one.

Currently the gambling gurus have it at Pats -13.5, I think the Patriots will beat this, and I’ll tell you why (its not just because I’m a homer, I am but this one I can justify). I don’t think anyone is too concerned about the Patriots offense, so the question is whether the Jaguars can put up points. Quarterback Garrard’s claim to fame is throwing few interceptions, but he’s still a inexperienced quarterback. If his team gets down he’ll have to go away from the safe passes he usually completes. I also expect him to have problems with the Patriots confusing package of rushes, he hasn’t faced a defense that operates quite like the Pats’.

The analysts love to talk about the Jags’ potent running game, I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve heard this past week that they will keep the Patriots offense off the field; “Brady and Moss can’t score if they’re on the sideline”. When you think about it, this is one of the stupider theories out there. Sure, if the clock is running the Pats will have fewer drives, but so will the Jaguars. Common wisdom is that time of possession means you’ll win the game, but such wisdom is based in fallacy. Teams with longer drives score more, and by longer I mean by yardage. Obviously these tend to take up more time than a drive where you get a couple first downs and punt or turn it over.

So in the end I don’t buy the running game making the difference, you need to do more than run the ball. It would be difficult for the Jags to score the 25.7 points per game they averaged this season, and even that would not be close to enough to beat the Pats. If they try to slow down the game to lower New England’s score they do the same to themselves.

On to the rest of the games, beginning with Indy and San Diego to round out the AFC. Indy is favored by 9, and I’ll take them over the Chargers. San Diego looked pretty mediocre against a weak Titans team last week, and Indy has all of their weapons back; they’ll be looking to use them and put up some points. And if the game is close they’d better hope Adam Vinatieri returns to his Patriot form.

I’m picking the Packers (-7.5) over Seattle simply because the Seahawks don’t play well on the road, and Lambeau is a tough place to play, especially with freezing temperatures forecast for tomorrow’s game. I do think Seattle has a chance to pull off the upset if they can utilize their experience on offense and Favre makes some mistakes with the football, as he is sometimes wont to do.

The trendy upset pick this week is NY over Dallas. I’ll take the Giants getting 7.5 with the spread, but Dallas will win the game. Romo has something to prove after all the talk of him being distracted, and after his playoff debacle of last year. The Giants have played well these past two weeks, but as I’ve said before I have no faith in Eli Manning, and I don’t think he’ll keep up the strong performance for a third week in a row. Which brings me to the much anticipated…

Big Brother Syndrome Theory! The performances of Eli and Peyton are inversely proportional. Whether he can’t handle the pressure of living up to his brother, or there is some cosmic force limiting the combined success of the Mannings, Eli plays his worst when Peyton has a strong game. He does well in weeks where Peyton struggles or doesn’t play at all. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at some numbers. Peyton’s 2007 season QB rating was 98.0, Eli’s was 76.0 (including his playoff game). In weeks where Peyton had a better QB rating than his average, Eli was held to an average rating of 65.6. During weeks where Peyton did worse than his average, or didn’t play at all, Eli had an average QB rating of 87.7. That’s a whopping 22.1 point difference in rating, and since Peyton will probably have a huge game this week, the Giants are in huge trouble. Remember, you heard it here first.

The Hall of Fame voting was released today, and Jim Rice fell just short of making it in (congratulations to Goose Gossage on his election). Rice received 72.2% of the vote, just 16 votes short of the necessary 75%. Rice, who has been on the ballot since 1995, has one last chance to be elected by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

As I’ve said before I believe Rice should be in the Hall of Fame, and think he will get enough votes next year to make it. The number of votes Rice receives has steadily increased since 2003, after hovering in the mid 50%’s since 2000. In 2003, Rice received 52.2% of the vote, 20% less than this year. 2007 was the only deviation from this trend (1.3% less than 2006), but was caused in large part by the eligibility of Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn that year. The most distinguished newcomer next year is Rickey Henderson, who should make it easily, but I don’t feel his presence will be enough to derail Rice’s attempt, given that some voters should be swung by the fact that it will be his last chance on the ballot.

I have been unable to find a complete video of Roger Clemens’ press conference today, in which he played an excerpt of a taped conversation with McNamee, but here is a portion of it. As has been the case with every development so far, this conversation sheds little light on who is telling the truth. McNamee acts as one would expect a man who told the truth and feels bad about it would, but at the same time does not refute Clemens when he says “I’m telling the truth”. Regardless of the content, it is pretty low of Clemens to secretly record and release a conversation, especially one involving McNamee’s sick child.

Update: Here, from ESPN.com, is the full portion of the call played at the press conference.

Let’s talk for a minute about the one asshole that voted for Brett Favre for this years AP NFL MVP award. I understand that by all accounts Brett Favre is a great guy - a man of great character. He’s led his team through many victorious seasons, he’s won a Superbowl, and he’s won the MVP before as well. I can’t take anything away from the man. This year, he took a very young and inexperienced team to a 13-3 record, and he put up great numbers. He was Sport’s Illustrated’s Sportsman of the Year. And we maybe have been talking about the Packer’s 16-0 record this time of year if they had been able to acquire Randy Moss instead of the Patriots.

But Brett Favre’s name has no business coming up in the MVP discussion this year. It’s not even close, and I’m actually angry, home team aside, that someone felt they had to vote for him. If ANYONE in the league, ANYONE, should have received a vote for MVP aside from Tom Brady, it should have been Randy Moss. So once you decide you’re going to vote for a Quarterback, how in your right mind could you vote for someone other than Tom Brady? Let’s look at some numbers…

You read it right folks - Tom Brady leads in every major passing statistic category. A lot of those aren’t even close, and he actually has better rushing numbers too. And lets not forget the most important numbers: 16 and 0. Don’t get me wrong, 13-3 is a great season, the Packers surprised everyone. Brett Favre put up numbers late in his career that would have won the MVP 8 times out of 10 seasons, but not this season. How can Tom Brady have the best season that a quarterback has EVER HAD, and someone decide to vote for a DIFFERENT QUARTERBACK for MVP. It’s ridiculous!

If anyone out there knows what the justification for the Favre vote was, please let me know, because I really am curious.

Update from Kurti: Per my comment, here is audio of an interview on WEEI this morning with Frank Cooney (the lone vote for Favre).

WEEI - Dennis and Callahan - Frank Cooney and Mitt Romney