The Bruins just got their first win of the playoffs against Montreal, cutting their deficit in the series to 2-1. A gutsy performance by the Bruins, who are playing with confidence, but with the lion’s share of scoring chances the rival Canadiens still look to be the superior team. I think the Bruins need to take the two remaining home games to have any chance to advance, as I don’t see them winning both remaining games in Canada.

I was lucky enough to attend the first game of the Sox-Yankees series on Friday. The series, which is wrapping up tonight, has been a good indication of why Boston is a superior team. In particular, New York’s weak rotation has been showcased, starting believe it or not with Wang’s two hitter on Friday night. While he got the job done, Wang’s stellar box score does not represent his actual performance. There were numerous line drives hit throughout the night which happened to travel straight into the gloves of the Yankee outfielders. The Sox could easily have touched Wang up for three or four runs, but ended up with one. Wang may be an ace, but he is neither a dominating nor intimidating presence which will cost the Yankees in the playoffs.

Mike Mussina gave a performance which I would expect to be about average from him this year, surrendering four runs in five-plus innings. He too got hit hard and has shown no signs of stopping his downward trend of the past few years. On the other end of the age spectrum, Phil Hughes got lit up today and will likely continue to have an up and down season as he adjusts to the major leagues. With a mediocre ace and an aging Pettitte and Mussina, the Yankees will need consistent quality starts our of Hughes and Ian Kennedy, and I don’t think they will get them over the course of the season.

The Red Sox are not without their own concerns, with Big Papi heading up the list. Much talk has been surrounding his off-season knee surgery and, although Ortiz said his knee felt fine during spring training, it is important to note that his struggles date back to the month of March. Had Ortiz shown any power during the spring (0 home runs in 26 at-bats) I would be more willing to brush off his early season struggles as an aberration. Once J.D. Drew cools off the Sox will have some difficulty scoring runs, especially with Lowell still out of the lineup. Nonetheless, Boston’s pitching is strong enough that I am confident that they will finish ahead of the Yankees in the standings.

Encouraging performance from Beckett today, but the Sox as a team need to get their act together after losing three in a row north of the border. Aside from the always reliable Papelbon and Okajima, the bullpen has been a mess so far this season. Mike Timlin cannot return soon enough as Manny Delcarmen continues to struggle.

In the series finale against Toronto today Delcarmen served up a grand slam to Frank Thomas, allowing three inherited runners to score. This makes Beckett’s pitching line pretty ugly, but I am still happy with the stuff he showed today. I am less happy with the fact that he seemed to tire in the fifth inning, leaving after throwing only 92 pitches. While it was encouraging that he was able to hit 98 on the radar gun out of the gate, I can’t help but question whether he tired himself out by throwing too hard too early. Beckett’s main problem in 2006 was mental rather than physical (throwing too many fastballs) and his start today shows he may still have some maturing to do.

As I think many people expected J.D. Drew seems poised for a bounce back year, although let’s not forget that he started pretty quickly in the first few games of last season as well. I am far more concerned about Lugo, a player known for his shaky defense who was downright awful in the Toronto series in the field and has shown no signs of improving his woeful hitting from a year ago. It makes me wonder how close to major league ready Jed Lowrie, the highly touted shortstop prospect, is. Lowrie struggled mightily in spring training, however, hitting just .106 in 47 at-bats and it is highly doubtful that we will see him replacing the excessively paid Lugo any time soon. As long as Lugo can settle down in the field I will be satisfied, as the lineup should be fine once Ortiz and Ramirez inevitably come around at the plate.

After months of speculation, Matt Walsh has finally released a scandalous video, although not of a pre-Superbowl Rams walkthrough.

Apparently fed up with the NFL’s refusal to offer him sufficient legal protection, Walsh decided it was time to embarrass his former employers. In a hidden camera video which is sure to rock Patriot Nation, Coach Belichick and former defensive coordinator Eric Mangini are shown fornicating in a Gillette Stadium office, according to multiple media sources. The video, which starts as an inconspicuous defensive planning session but ends in romance, provides a deeper insight into the mysterious relationship between the colleagues. Much has been made of Mangini’s 2006 departure to lead the rival Jets and the subsequent post-game handshake incidents between the coaches. Walsh’s video suggests that the rift between the two is more than just professional.

“I’d always suspected that something was going on between the two of them,” said Walsh, when asked why he had set up a hidden camera, “They spent way too much time together in the video room.”

While it is still unclear whether Walsh has footage related to Spy-gate, it may be that this revelation is enough to end Belichick’s career.

“The Patriots have a very clear policy against intra-office relationships,” said team owner Robert Kraft, “I have no further comment until we have completed an internal investigation into the matter.”

According to the Patriot Employee Handbook “Patriot personnel shall not engage in romantic relationships without notifying management. Inappropriate relations between employees will be dealt with harshly at the discretion of the organization, including the possibility of termination.”

Belichick, in a brief statement released today by the team, states “The tape is what it is. I know the rules of the team, and my interpretation is that our actions were not in violation. I consider myself part of Patriot management and was well aware of our relationship. I have notified the Krafts of my interpretation and am confident that they will agree.”

The last time Belichick misinterpreted a rule it ended with a $500K fine and loss of a draft pick. Will this one result in the loss of his job? We can only wait and see.

In other news the Bruins will be demoted to the minor leagues at the end of the season, and the Red Sox have traded Clay Buchholz to the Yankees for Alex Rodriguez. Enjoy the rest of Fool’s Day!

Might as well do it now! Here are my predictions for the outcome of MLB 2008:

American League East

Boston Red Sox 94 - 68

New York Yankees 90 - 72

Toronto Blue Jays 83-79

Tampa Bay Rays 82 - 80

Baltimore Orioles 62-100

No surprise here. I can’t help but be a homer when my favorite team won the World Series last year and retains its roster in near entirety. I think the big surprise in this division is going to be the Rays, though. They’ve given both the Sox and the Yanks fits in the past, but have had trouble winning consistently against opponents both in their division (222-335, .398) and outside of it (257-392, .396). This year though, the Rays are armed with a multitude of young talent and have arguably the best rotation in the American League East, and for that reason I predict that for the first time in club history this young Rays team who is no longer helpless will finish with a record over .500. (As a side note, Kurti will owe me $100.00 dollars when this happens.) Congrats to the Baltimore Orioles for finally deciding to sell and rebuild, and being willing to lose 100 games this year.

American League Central

Detroit Tigers 96 - 66

Cleveland Indians 88 - 74

Minnesota Twins 79 - 83

Chicago White Sox 73 - 89

Kansas City Royals 70 - 92

The tigers loaded up heavy in the offseason, and for the next few years it should pay tidy dividends to them. With the additions of Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria, the Tigers have filled in the few holes their lineup contained. I have some questions about their pitching, namely why on earth they chased after the D-Train, but this team could and probably will score close to 1000 runs this season, and that will be tough for most clubs to consistently stop. I expect drop off from Fausto Carmona and C.C. Sabathia (who undeservedly won the Cy Young award last year) that will not be fully alleviated by a resurgence of Grady Sizemore, Asdrubal Cabrera and Travis Hafner, and I don’t expect the Indians to make the playoffs. I do, however, expect a more respectable showing from the youngsters on the Royals squad this year, but not enough to take them out of the basement of the Central. I’ll be cheering for Billy Butler.

American League West

Seattle Mariners 91 - 61

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 91 - 61

Oakland Athletics 67 - 95

Texas Rangers 66 - 96

Ladies and gentleman, your new American League wild card division. After the Yankees managed to squeeze in last year and reclaim the wild card for the American League East (takers of the wild card in 9 of the last 13 seasons) , the West can expect to send two members to the playoffs for the first time since 2002. With Erik Bedard, the Mariners now have one of the best 1-2 pitching combos in the American League. I expect the Mariners to be a tough game for all of their opponents regardless of who is starting for the entire year, but they will only be at the very top of their division at the end of the year because the Angel’s are beginning this season hurt. Once LA returns to full health they should be a force to be reckoned with, displaying speed, BA and quality pitching to their opponents night after night. Best of luck to the A’s and the Rangers, who will have a tough fight this season to see who finishes last in the division. Based on the preseason, and depending on a healthy Rich Harden, I’m picking the Rangers for the bottom rung.

National League East

New York Mets 95 - 67

Philadelphia Phillies 91 - 71

Atlanta Braves 75 - 87

Florida Marlins 68 - 94

Washington Nationals 63 - 99

Wow, the Mets look scary on paper. Can you imagine a healthy Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana on the same team? Stocked with two of the best young superstars in baseball on the left side of their infield, and probably the best starting 5 in baseball, the Mets are a lock to win the division. Believe me when I say this: the Mets are going to the World Series this year. Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, and Oliver Perez? Even the aging El Duque could have another standout year. The Mets are a juggernaut, and the other teams in this division will just be looking to scrape together enough wins to try for the wild card, of which the Phillies stand the best chance.

National League Central

Chicago Cubs 91 - 71

Milwaukee Brewers 88 - 74

Cincinnati Reds 84 - 78

St. Louis Cardinals 79 - 83

Houston Astros 78 - 84

Pittsburgh Pirates 64 - 98

In the worst division in baseball, things finally come together for the Cubs, but not as much as they’ve anticipated based on pre-season moves. I expect the Brewers to give them a run for their money this year. Once the Reds get it into their heads that young players can contribute to a major league team they’ll call up Homer Bailey and Joey Votto and start giving teams a hard time, but it will wind up being too late to contend in the division this year. Aside from that, expect many Pirate losses. I know, I know, this blog was supposed to focus on predictions, but, nothing very new is going to happen in the extremely vanilla National League Central.

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks 90-72

San Diego Padres 89 - 73

Colorado Rockies 89 - 73

Los Angeles Dodgers 81 - 81

San Fransisco Giants 63 - 99

Probably the closest division in the league, I don’t think we can expect a repeat performance from the Colorado Rockies this year. I do think, however, that the DBacks will have learned from their experience, and with the addition of Dan Haren I am picking them out of the gate this year as the strongest and most well-rounded team in the NLW. That said, I don’t think they will make it past the division series….which brings me to projected playoff matchups.

Division Series

Tigers Vs. Angels: Tigers in 4

Red Sox Vs. Mariners: Red Sox in 5

Mets Vs. Diamondbacks: Mets in 3

Cubs Vs. Phillies: Cubs in 5

The two AL games should be thrilling with some excellent pitching match ups and some loaded lineups. In the end the two best teams in the AL will move on to the ALCS. The Mets will crush the Diamondbacks in 3 straight, and Cubs fans will once again get their hopes up after a 100 year drought when Chicago moves on to the NLCS

Championship Series

Tigers Vs. Red Sox: Red Sox in 6

Mets Vs. Cubs: Mets in 5

The pitching and depth of the Red Sox proves to be too much even for the loaded Detroit line-up in a 7 game series. Meanwhile, the Mets continue to roll, showcasing the depth of their starting pitching over 5 games. Sorry Cubs fans. Maybe next year.

World Series

If you’re from New England, you know this is the rematch you’ve been waiting for. 22 years later, we finally get another shot at the Mets. This series is really a toss up, and I’d say really depends on the health and fatigue of the starting pitchers in October. I think the Red Sox get the edge here based on experience, but it will be a series for the ages. Red Sox, in 7, winning their first World Series at home since 1918. Put it in the books.

So the Celtics couldn’t finish off what would have been the perfect road trip, but it was a solid on nonetheless. The four game swing included the best win of the season Monday night in San Antonio, a thrashing of the red hot Rockets, and a close victory in Dallas. Hopefully the loss in the final matchup against the Hornets will teach the team to be more careful with the ball as I don’t remember the C’s turning the ball over that many times since last season.

The trip contained some pretty poor officiating in all four games, which is a continuing trend for the NBA. Basketball, more than any other sport, has consistently controversial calls. The nature of the fouls makes them far more subjective than football or baseball, and the sheer number of fouls per game means more errors are made. Turning the ball over so frequently narrows the margin for error, and the Celtics need to do a better job of ensuring that referees can’t decide the game.

I would also like to state my concern for the Pacman Jones rumors that have been floating about. Supposedly the Patriots are one of 3 teams, including the Lions and Cowboys, who have interest in the troubled cornerback. Now I trust that Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli will not acquire Pacman unless they believe that he can turn his life around, but he has a pattern of bad behavior far more concerning than that of Randy Moss and Corey Dillon, the other two players who have played nice once wearing the flying Elvis on their helmets. In the cases of the latter, they both had attitude problems on losing teams, which was appeased by the Patriots and their winning ways. Pacman on the other hand has shown a pattern of detrimental and downright dangerous off-field behavior, and the inability to learn from his mistakes. I for one have a hard time believing that coming to New England will make much of a difference.

Tomorrow night the Celtics will complete one of the greatest road trips in memory, win or lose, but more on that some other time. For now, I must take issue with Patrick’s fantasy baseball expoundings.

For starters, I would like to clarify that I don’t take issue with any of his draft picks. Certainly in the last few rounds of the draft it is acceptable to take rookies who may or may not perform. In the case of Oliver Perez, I wish I had been able to snare him, and the reason why is that he has a history of dominance. He also has a history of miserable failure, but that’s a risk you can take by selecting him late in the draft.

I tend to be more cautious with rookies, especially guys who have never played in the majors. I have no problem at all drafting players like Loney, Butler and Theriot, who have all shown what they can do in the bigs. I do take issue, however, with people who get too excited about rookies that haven’t shown anything and draft them ridiculously high. A good example of this is Alex Gordon, who was supposedly a wunderkind from Kansas City last year and got drafted in the middle rounds in one of my leagues. One day he may be great, but last year’s performance was not worth that kind of investment. History tells us that it rarely is; hardly any rookie comes in to dominate, especially one with absolutely not major league experience. One could point to certain counter-examples, such as Ryan Braun, but the point is it is impossible to tell (case in point, Braun went largely undrafted last season and turned out being a great waiver pickup). There are far more examples of guys like Perez who have shown that they can dominate and returning to form than there are of phenomenal rookies.

You will do well in our league Patrick, because you were smart and saved your rookie picks to the end. There are certain other teams in the league, who I will spare the embarrassment of mentioning, who fell in to the trap of drafting over hyped rookies way too high. So readers, when you do your fantasy baseball drafts, take a deep breath and realize that even if you think a guy will far outperform his ADP, there is no reason to draft him too early. Even if he pans out you could have had him later, so no matter how good your baseball intuition, you’re still a moron for taking him too soon.

Check back tomorrow for my thoughts on the Celtics, and don’t forget to watch the game!

Much like very many others, I am anxiously anticipating the beginning of the baseball season. Not just to watch my beloved Red Sox, however. Every year I follow Spring Training and anxiously await opening day because it means the start of another fantasy baseball season.

Kurti and I had our draft a few weeks ago, and I can say that I am largely pleased with my results. I had the 11th pick overall and still wound up with some decent power (Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun), while preserving my speed and OBP numbers throughout the rest of the draft (Russell Martin, Michael Young, etc). But just about anyone can make the first 13 or 14 picks in a 12-team mixed league. The key to moving up a few positions in the league is to not only work the waiver wire to your advantage, but to also evaluate risks and use foresight when making those last 7 or 8 draft choices.

I have largely been mocked around the office for spending my last picks on the following group of babies players: James Loney, Oliver Perez, Jon Lester, Kevin Gregg, Joey Votto, Jonathan Broxton, Billy Butler and Ryan Theriot (And unfortunately NOT Evan Longoria, who will win Rookie of the Year this year, even playing for the Rays). Kevin Gregg is the old man of that group at the tender age of 30. While I was drafting young talent, the rest of my league was largely fighting over veterans with recognizable names who are primed (read: trying) to make a comeback, and I think this is a mistake.

Some examples of veterans who are unlikely to produce big time numbers again, but were still drafted in my league: Randy Johnson, Ivan Rodriguez, Troy Percival, hell even injured Curt Schilling. I find it hard to believe that Ivan Rodriguez will outproduce Geovany Soto this year even in the stacked Tiger’s lineup, yet his ADP is about 12 picks earlier than the rookie. Now, don’t get me wrong, there is a place for established players on any team, but if it comes down to a veteran who’s numbers have steadily declined from their moment in the sun and a rookie who is trying to make a name for themselves in the majors, I’ll take the loaded-with-upside rookie every single time.

Think twice before taking the most recognizable name on that list! Teams like the Rays and the Reds, darkhorse candidates to compete in their respective leagues, expect major contributions from their rookies this year, and to not consider them as potential sources of statistics in a fantasy league is foolish and shortsighted. Long live the rookie!

5 days remaining; the countdown has begun. To what you ask? To the biggest showdown in the NBA so far this season. And like a NASA space shuttle scheduled for blast off with a thunderstorm approaching, this is a countdown which could very well end prematurely.

On March 18, 2008 at 9:30pm EDT the Celtics, riding a 13 game winning streak, will take on the Houston Rockets and their fate defying 22 game victory parade. Boston will have yet another chance to show that they are the team to beat in the NBA if they succeed where nearly two dozen predecessors have failed and knock off the Yao Ming-less Rockets.  The  TNT network will hype their Tuesday night broadcast to no end.  ESPN will inform us that this is the first time in god knows how long where teams with combined 35 straight wins have met. This will be a must watch game, whether you are an avid follower of the Celts or not.

Standing in the way of this death match are three tough games for Boston (Utah, Milwaukee, and San Antonio) and two home games for Houston (Chicago and the Lakers) which will be no cake walk.  Should both teams make it through this stretch unscathed, the Rockets, who have Monday off, have a clear advantage given that the Celts play in San Antonio the previous night.  Because of that I say Houston will be the favorite to win this matchup, although I would not be surprised at all to see Paul Pierce, KG and Ray Allen pull it off.  We don’t know for sure if the game will happen; what we do know is that, by the early hours of March 19th, somethings got to give.

It’s been a while since my last post, I apologize, there’s lots of Red Sox news to discuss.  According to ESPN there is now a very good chance that ace Josh Beckett will not make it to Japan for the opening series of the season.  Beckett’s back injury does not appear to be too serious, but this is the guy who was plagued by something as minor as blisters for years, so I won’t feel better until he is back on the mound and at full strength.

The pressure is now on the rest of the pitching staff to start the season off strong, with Dice-K likely getting the opening day start, if he indeed makes the trip to Japan despite the impending birth of his child.  I believe the Japanese star will have a strong game, or will at least be fired up, in his first start back in front of his home fans.  Behind Matsusaka, the rotation is looking a bit shaky, what with the struggles of Buchholz, Snyder, and Tavarez so far this spring.  Another Boston pitcher of note who is struggling, although out of the bullpen, is Craig Hansen.  If Hansen can’t pull it together this year I will have just about given up hope on this highly regarded prospect who has yet to show he can handle Major League hitters.

On the bright side, Tim Wakefield has been solid so far this spring, and John Lester is coming off a good start against hypothetical trade counterpart Johann Santana.  I was very happy to hear that Lester is consistently hitting the mid 90s with his fastball this spring, which should greatly improve his effectiveness (last year he was throwing high 80s and low 90s, coming off his cancer treatment).  If Dice-K and either Wake or Lester start the opening series games against the Athletics in Japan I like their chances of winning at least one of, if not both, contests.

On a side note, congratulations to Papelbon on his new contract.  The one-year, $775,000 deal shows the lights out closer the respect he deserves, while fitting in with the Sox’ need for fiscal responsibility.  As an arbitration-ineligible player it was the best he could have hoped for, and it is a deal that ensures he remain a positive influence in the clubhouse.

If Randy Moss were Jewish today would be the day of his Bar Mitzvah; he has grown up and is now a man.  If there was any doubt that Randy is a new, more mature person, it goes out the window with the report in the Boston Herald that he turned down a larger contract with the Eagles to stay in New England.  An obviously good decision, perhaps, but not one that I would expect him to have made in his younger days.

I would bet, and this is pure speculation, that the contract the Eagles offered was more than a little richer than the 3 year, $27 million deal he just signed with the Patriots.  It turns out that the lure of playing with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick was more valuable than some extra dollars.  This will turn out to be a great decision for Moss, and for the Patriots.  $27 million is quite a reasonable price to pay for the best receiver in football.

Although the Moss signing is a major off season hurdle now behind them, the Patriots have a lot of work to do.  Not only are there holes to fill on the defense, particularly at cornerback and linebacker, but the offense needs to figure out a way to return to form.  While still good, even great, towards the end of the season, the offense became much less dominant than it was at the start of 2007.  It seemed as though the defensive coaches finally caught up with the innovative Patriot offense, now it’s time to once again take that step ahead.  What remains to be seen is whether Belichick and Co. will try to do this by adding personnel, through free agency or the draft, or will do what they do best and change up the schemes.  Regardless, with Moss now secure, the Pats seem a lock to repeat as division champs and go deep into the playoffs.